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Peer reviewed articles


Academy for Security Analysis

The Academy for Security Analysis is a $4.98 Million project supported by USAID that seeks to build institutional capacity to analyze security and justice policies in the Northern Triangle region of Central America. The Academy primarily focusses on providing quantitative training and implementing randomized controlled trials in collaboration with government agencies and NGOs

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Replication files are available here.

Replication files are available here

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Vote Buying and Social Desirability Bias: Experimental Evidence from Nicaragua, (2011), with Ezequiel Gonzalez-Ocantos, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, Carlos Meléndez, and David W. Nickerson, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 56, Issue 1, 202-217, PDF.

Peer reviewed book chapters

"Las Causas Estructurales de la Violencia en México: Evaluación de Algunas Hipótesis", (2012), in Aguilar Rivera, José Antonio (Coord.), Las Bases Sociales del Crimen Organizado y la Violencia en México.Centro de Investigación y Estudios en Seguridad - Secretaría de Seguridad Pública, México City, 2012: 73-132, (in Spanish), PDF.


Hobbes on Drugs. Understanding Drug Violence in Mexico, (2013), Doctoral Dissertation, University of Notre Dame.

     - Abstract here

     - Full manuscript here

Work in progress

Support for Torture. Experimental Evidence from the War on Drugs in Mexico. Under review. PDF

Political (Dis)Order and Drug Violence in MexicoPDF


Vigilante Mobilization and Local Order: Evidence from Mexico, with Livia Schubiger and Michael Weintraub. PDF


Multi-Actor Conflict and Violence in Colombia, with Susan Norman. PDF

Multi-language Coding of Event Data Using Eventus ID. PDF


Carrots and Sticks. Experimental Evidence of Vote Buying and Voter Intimidation in Guatemala, with Ezequiel Gonzalez-Ocantos, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, Carlos Meléndez, and David W. Nickerson. 


Historical legacies of conflict. From the Cristero Rebellion to the Emergence of Self-defense forces in Mexico, with Livia Schubiger and Michael Weintraub.



Event Data Internal Validation: Experimental Evidence from Machine and Human Coding, with Benjamin Bagozzi, Patrick Brandt, Vito D’Orazio, John Freeman, Andrew Halterman, Jill Irvine, Jacob Loehr, Alisha Kim, and Philip Schordt.


Democratization and Drug Violence in Mexico.

     - Current version

     - Version 2012. Presented at Yale University

Non-peer reviewed publications

Numbers Under Fire. The Challenges of Quantitative Data Gathering in Highly Violent Settings, (2014), Drugs, Security and Democracy Program DSD Working Papers on Research Security, No. 6, Social Science Research Council.


What the Afghan War Diary Really Tells Us, (2010), with Christopher Sullivan, Small Wars Journal.


¿Es Posible Contabilizar la Compra del Voto en México?, (2010), FEPADE Difunde.

Commissioned academic reports


Informe Especial Sobre Libertad del Sufragio en México (with Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos and Chad Kiewiet de Jonge), Mexico City, Instituto Federal Electoral, 2014​​

Aproximación a las percepciones de la ciudadanía sobre la compra de votos y la intimidación de votantes en el régimen político guatemalteco(with Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos, Carlos Meléndez, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, and David Nickerson). Ciudad. de Guatemala, Guatemala: National Democratic Institute,

2012 (in Spanish).



"Caso de Estudio Mexicano" in Torres, Natalia (Comp.). Acceso a la información y datos personales: una vieja tensión, nuevos desafíos. (2012). Centro de Estudios para la Libertad de Expresión y Acceso a la InformaciónOpen Society Foundations (CELE-OSF), Buenos AiresMéxico.

Javier Osorio

Assistant Professor

School of Government and Public Policy

University of Arizona

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